Forecasters: Fewer Atlantic Hurricanes Predicted

June 5, 2009

Hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University have lowered their prediction for the number of hurricanes they expect to hit the Atlantic Basin in 2009 to five, down from an April forecast of six hurricanes.

According to researchers Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, the revised forecast “is based on an extended-range early June statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 58 years of past data … the influence of El NiƱo conditions is implicit in these predictor fields.”

The forecast states that information obtained through May 2009 indicates that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will be slightly less active than the average 1950-2000 season. Gray and Klotzbach also predicted 2009 will have 11 named storms, 50 named storm days, 20 hurricane days, 2 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes, and 4 major hurricane days.

To view the entire forecast, visit
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2009/june2009/jun2009.pdf.

Source: CSU

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