Atlantic Hurricane Forecast Still Calls for an Above-Average Season

August 4, 2021

Conditions remain in line for the current Atlantic hurricane season to be an above-average one, according to the mid-season update by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA says there is a 65% likelihood that the season will be above average. There is a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

“After a record-setting start, the Atlantic 2021 hurricane season does not show any signs of relenting as it enters the peak months ahead,” said Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., NOAA administrator.

The latest outlook reflects that the number of expected named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater) is 15-21, including 7-10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), of which 3-5 could become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds 111 mph or greater). This updated outlook includes the five named storms that have formed so far, with Hurricane Elsa becoming the earliest fifth named storm on record.

“A mix of competing oceanic and atmospheric conditions generally favor above-average activity for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season, including the potential return of La Nina in the months ahead,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Topics Catastrophe Natural Disasters Trends Hurricane

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