NOAA Chimes in With Prediction of Above-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) today predicted an 85% chance of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, with up to 25 named storms.

“The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation,” NOAA said.

The hurricane season—June 1 to November 30—is expected to have 17-25 named storms of which 8-13 could be hurricanes with winds of 74mph or more, according to NOAA. The season is predicted to include 4-7 major hurricanes of 111mph or more, it added.

“Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges,” NOAA said.

AccuWeather has previously warned of a “super-charged” 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

In April, the team at Colorado State University, who have been forecasting hurricanes in the Atlantic for more than 40 years, said activity in 2024 will be “extremely active.” Due to release it’s next forecast on June 11, the team led by Senior Research Scientist Philip J. Klotzbach called in April for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.

Speaking recently at a Target Markets Program Administrators Association meeting, Klotzbach said, “There’s a lot of excitement and nervousness about this year’s hurricane season.”

The average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season saw 20 named storms, ranking fourth for the most named storms in a year since 1950, said the NOAA.

The American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA) followed NOAA’s forecast with a statement from Michael Richmond Crum, senior director of personal lines at APCIA, urging homeowners to prepare and strengthen their homes.

“An active and costly hurricane season could exacerbate the challenges that many policyholders across the U.S., but particularly in disaster-prone regions like the hurricane exposed coastline, face with rising insurance costs and availability challenges,” said Crum. “With hurricane season starting on June 1, it is critical for residents to take steps now to reduce the potential for damage to their property during hurricane season. Many insurers offer discounts for mitigation measures that help reduce the likelihood of a loss or the extent of damage.”

Topics Trends Catastrophe Natural Disasters Hurricane Aerospace