The Gulf Coast has avoided any major tropical storms so far this hurricane season, but the Gulf’s luck could soon change, AccuWeather hurricane experts say.
Water temperatures in the Gulf are exceptionally warm, creating conditions for rapid intensification of storms. AccuWeather predicts heightened danger of tropical storms or developing in the region by mid-September. The news agency compared the Gulf to a giant bathtub, with water temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Warmer water is known to fuel tropical storms.
“If anything goes in there, it almost certainly will become a major hurricane, said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert. “The ocean heat content, or the depth of warm ocean water in the Gulf and western Caribbean, is near record high levels. This is extremely concerning.”
The Gulf has seen minimal tropical storm activity through early September, which has allowed water to become incredibly warm, according to AccuWeather.
“Waters in the central and northern Gulf have not been disturbed by a storm yet, allowing temperatures to skyrocket to near record levels,” DaSilva said.
Storms that rapidly intensify near the coast leave residents, officials and businesses with less time to react, DaSilva said. “We have been encouraging people since the beginning of the hurricane season to stock up on emergency supplies, check their insurance policies, and take time to review local evacuation zones and evacuation routes,” he said.
The AccuWeather 2025 hurricane forecast calls for 13 to 18 named storms, including seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes that reach Category 3 strength or higher.
To date, there have been six named storms and one hurricane – Erin. Hurricane Erin rapidly intensified in the warm waters of the Atlantic Basin and ultimately became a Category 5 hurricane.
“Erin is the latest case of extreme rapid intensification, when maximum sustained winds increase 58 mph or more within 24 hours,” DaSilva said.
AccuWeather forecasts three to six hurricanes to directly impact the U.S. this year, which is the same range for the historic 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Topics Windstorm
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