Milton Brings Winds, Flooding to Florida but Damage May Not Be as Heavy as Feared

By | October 10, 2024

Hurricane Milton made landfall Wednesday night, centered near Sarasota as a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, a less-powerful storm than had been feared but one that brought some storm surge, flooding, multiple tornadoes and property damage to parts of the state. At least four people were killed.

The Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund, which provides a backstop and level of reinsurance for property insurers in the state, is well-positioned to handle the impact of the storm, an official said early Thursday.

Even after three relatively minor hurricanes in the last year, and now Milton, the Cat Fund has “liquid resources of $10.1 billion and an estimated bonding capacity from May of this year of $7.8 billion for a total of $17.9 billion, which exceeds the $17 billion limit on the Fund’s single-season obligation,” said Emily Percival, director of external affairs for the State .

Pre-landfall estimates of insured losses for Milton ranged as high as $60 billion, about as great as losses from Hurricane Ian that followed a similar path in 2022. But early reports Thursday suggested that damage outside of flooding may not be as severe as expected.

“I think the insurance industry will be able to rise to the occasion,” said former Florida deputy insurance commissioner Lisa Miller.

Despite years of heavy losses from claims litigation, the industry has rebounded to some degree, as shown by a reinsurance stress test performed each summer by the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation, Miller said. The reduction in the storm’s intensity to Category 3 as it made landfall may significantly cut insured losses, according to Bloomberg Intelligence insurance analyst Charles Graham.

Related: Cat Bonds Dodge Worst-Case Scenario with Milton

Still, the storm is expected to have some impact on property insurance companies’ bottom lines. Oscar Seikaly, CEO of NSI Insurance Group, predicted that Milton, along with Hurricane Helene that swamped the Southeast last month, will result in higher reinsurance prices for carriers.

Click on the image to see the track of Hurricane Milton (NWS)

Homeowners in parts of Florida should then expect premium increases of at least 20% in the next year or so, he said in an email. That would come after four years of rate increases, but evidence this year of rate stabilization and even minor rate decreases from some carriers.

News reports noted that as the hurricane turned slightly southward Wednesday night, it spared the Tampa Bay area of the deep storm surge that had been feared. The roof of Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, home of the Tampa Bay Rays Major League Baseball team until a new stadium opens in 2028, was ripped to shreds by the winds, the Associated Press reported. Two people died in St. Petersburg, but the cause was not known, according to news reports.

Multiple construction cranes in the Tampa area also were toppled, AP noted. A water main break in St. Petersburg shut down water service to most residents. Power outages to more than 3 million people were reported across the state, and an estimated two million gallons of sewage spilled from a flooded treatment facility in Leesburg, the New York Times reported.

Trees were reported down around Sarasota (Photo: Jay Brizie)

In Sarasota County, to the south of Tampa, where the eyewall made landfall, surge was estimated at 8 to 10 feet. Still, one resident there, Jay Brizie, reported less impact than expected, with numerous trees down, but manageable damage to condominium buildings.

In Lakewood Ranch, just east of Sarasota, wind was not as severe as expected. Matt Mercier, national director for community associations for CBIZ, an insurance advisory firm, said his own home was recently built to withstand wind damage.

“It goes to show you, a new roof and storm shutters really can make a difference,” he said.

In the Naples area, south of Fort Myers, which saw heavy damage in Hurricane Ian, major flooding was reported Thursday, Bloomberg news noted. Melissa Seixas, president of Duke Energy Florida, said Milton “is our worst fears come true.” The company had just replaced hundreds of transformers destroyed by Helene two weeks ago, and that equipment is now vulnerable again. “We had about 24 hours between the final restoration of Helene and preparing for this storm,” she said.

Inland, flooding had worsened by late Thursday morning from Milton’s 13 inches to 18 inches of rain. In Plant City, the city manager called the flooding “absolutely staggering,” AP reported. Some 35 people were rescued from rising waters.

At least 19 tornadoes touched down all along Milton’s path. The Spanish Lakes Country Club near Fort Pierce, on the east coast, saw several homes destroyed and four people killed, the Associated Press and other news sites reported.

By early Thursday, Milton had moved into the Atlantic, still pushing storm surge along parts of Florida’s east coast.

“This rainfall will continue to bring the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding,” National Hurricane Center forecasters wrote in an outlook, Bloomberg news service reported. Tropical storm conditions will spread to the South Carolina and Georgia coasts on Thursday.

Related: Expect Delays in Claims Adjusting After Milton

Topics Florida Flood

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