Florida Heads for Smallest Orange Crop in Nearly a Century

Florida’s orange harvest is expected to fall to the lowest in nearly a century, as shrinking groves continue to offset improvements in yields.

The state is seen producing 12 million boxes of fruit in the 2025-26 season, down 2% from the prior year, the US Department of Agriculture said in its first forecast for the season. That output, the lowest since 1930, comes as Florida’s historical orange groves continued to be removed following years of disease and the impacts of Hurricane Milton at the end of 2024.

Production of Florida’s state fruit has dropped sharply since the turn of the century as the so-called citrus greening disease ravages groves. While new treatments have helped recover the potential of some infected trees, it still hasn’t been enough to offset the broader loss of acreage.

Any recovery in overall production still remains further out. Producers could plant between two to five million new trees this year, after Florida approved nearly $140 million for the citrus industry in its 2025-26 budget, said Marisa Zansler, director of economic and market research at the state’s Department of Citrus. But those trees will take three to five years to start producing.

“It’ll be a process to see the overall fruit count increase,” said Matt Joyner, chief executive officer of Florida Citrus Mutual. “That’s going to take a number of years to get that broader number up.”

US consumers, though, might not have to wait that long for record retail prices to cool. Orange juice futures are already more than 60% below a December 2024 record as top OJ producer Brazil anticipates production rebounding in the 2025-26 season from its worst orange crop in 36 years. The most-active contract in New York fell as much as 7.4% on Monday, the biggest drop in more than two months, to $1.8865 per pound.

More of Florida’s fruits could also soon make it into American juice bottles after the US in November lowered the minimum sugar content requirement for pasteurized orange juice.

Read More: OJ’s Record Price, High Sugar Impede a Breakfast Table Comeback

Most of Florida’s fruits are destined for juicing, while top citrus state California grows a greater share of fresh fruits. California’s output is expected to grow 1% year-over-year to 45.5 million boxes in the 2025-26 season, helping to keep overall US production roughly flat, according to the USDA.

Top photo: Workers sort navel oranges at a packing facility in Vero Beach, Florida. (Eve Edelheit/Bloomberg)

Topics Florida Agribusiness