Oakland, Calif.-based Eqecat Inc. is predicting that in the next decade, the risk for insured losses from hurricanes in the United States will be higher than the long-term average derived from 100 years of data, according to Rick Clinton, company president.
“We believe this assessment should be considered by insurance companies, policyholders, rating agencies, investors, and regulators as we move through future hurricane seasons,” Clinton said. “Given broad industry discussion of climate changes, we have emphasized to clients and the general marketplace that in our view, combining long-term historical climatology data with our scientifically based knowledge and continual review of persistent weather conditions in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, provides an effective quantification of prospective risk.”
According to Clinton, many scientists have observed a cyclical trend in hurricane activity in the past 100 years or more. “This trend correlates well with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phenomenon, and strongly indicates that we are in a period of increased hurricane activity that could last for five, 10 or even more years,” he said.
Eqecat, an affiliate of ABSG Consulting Inc., is an extreme-risk modeling company.
For more information, visit www.eqecat.com.
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