News Briefs

Aon’s Political Risk Map shows an unsafe world

U.S.-based companies with business interests abroad will not be trading in a safer world in 2006, according to Aon’s newly published global business risk analysis in its 2006 Political & Economic Risk Map. Aon said the map shows that “critical sourcing partners and important supply-chain stress points still remain a serious threat to the world’s global trade economy.”

Each year, Aon Trade Credit evaluates the political and economic risks for multinational corporations in more than 200 countries. This year’s analysis was conducted in partnership with Oxford Analytica, an international, independent consulting firm, which collected data from more than 1,000 senior faculty members at the U.K.’s Oxford University, and other major universities and research institutions.

The map has upgraded 23 countries for 2006, but Aon cautioned they still may “remain dangerous places for businesses to operate.” As examples, the report names Indonesia and Colombia. “The political and economic risk ratings for both countries have ‘improved’ from high to medium-high, even though both nations still present a significant risk to corporations doing business there,” Aon noted.

Simon Sole, an U.K.-based intelligence expert and managing director of Exclusive Analysis, warned that the threat of terrorism would not diminish in the year ahead with the continued potential for attacks around the world.

In an interview published on the Lloyd’s Web site, he indicated that the continuing war on terror “will continue to reverberate throughout the Middle East, and will also impact the risk environments of Western Europe and America.”

Sole warned that Sunni extremism will continue to evolve from “al-Qaeda” into a “green-shoots” model which will see a series of independent groups developing capability based on their local resources. He also indicated that both the U.K. and the U.S. would again be at risk by small groups planning further terror attacks. He added the key to preventing further attacks is intelligence, not security, and observed “intelligence services are being stretched to capacity and significant reform is unlikely.”

Topics Aon