The London-based tropical Storm Risk Consortium (TSR) has issued a bulletin predicting that the number of Atlantic storms in 2002 will be above average, and that at least two hurricanes will strike the U.S.
“TSR expects thirteen tropical storms, with eight of these being hurricanes and three intense hurricanes. Such activity would be 10% above the average level for the past ten years and 30-40% above the prior 30-year average,” said the announcement.
One of the lead scientists who conducted the study, Dr. Mark Saunders of the Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre at University College London indicated that “Our projections for the Atlantic in 2002 sustain the recent cycle of high hurricane activity, with 1995-2002 set to become the most active eight-year period for Atlantic hurricanes on record.”
The study pointed to two main climate factors, the speed of the trade winds blowing westward across the Atlantic and into the Caribbean Sea, and the warmer than normal water temperatures between West Africa and the Caribbean, that increase the likelihood of tropical storm formation and eventually hurricanes.
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