Willis Intelligence Head Urges Crisis Plan Review on No. Korea Threats

Tim Holt, Head of Intelligence at Alert:24, Willis and SCR’s risk and crisis management consultancy, in his latest blog on WillisWire, has indicated that “conflict is unlikely but not out of the question as tensions escalate on the Korean peninsula.”

As a result, Holt said: “It would be prudent for organizations to review their contingency, evacuation and crisis plans should tensions deteriorate further into conflict.”

“The bellicose rhetoric from North Korea in the past two weeks has been extraordinary, prompting concerns that the authoritarian regime is ready and willing to launch an attack,” he added. “To date, however, with the exception of an intensification of military exercises and the alleged movement of missiles, the only points of action have been to restart the Yongbyon nuclear site and close entry to the Kaesong industrial complex.”

However, Holt said: “We shouldn’t underestimate the real possibility that provocations and brinksmanship on the Korean peninsula could escalate as a result of an isolated and antagonistic incident on a military installation.”

He also noted the following additional highlights from his blog:
• This round of tensions indicates that Kim Jong-Un will not be an agent of change and North Korea’s leaders are moving further from much needed socio-economic and political reform.
• Foreign diplomats in Pyongyang are no longer guaranteed the immunity and safety their international status demands.
• The technology needed to deploy fully functioning warheads is some way off, casting doubts on North Korea’s actual nuclear capacity.
• The West’s best chances of encouraging North Korea to change in the long term is through promoting an economic revolution from within and involving China.

Source: Willis