A weak El Nino might still form in the next 30 to 60 days across the equatorial Pacific, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said.
Sea surface temperatures in the region have been above- average through September. Changes to the atmosphere, which also have to happen for an El Nino to be declared, haven’t developed consistently.
“The lack of coherent atmospheric and oceanic features indicates the continuation” of neutral conditions, the College Park, Maryland-based center said in an advisory last Thursday. “The consensus of forecasters indicates a 2-in-3 chance of El Nino during the November 2014-January 2015 season,” in line with earlier outlooks.
A “watch” is in place for the event that can change weather patterns around the world, including bringing a milder winter to the northern U.S. and drier conditions across parts of Australia, Indonesia and northeastern Brazil.
Computer forecast models predict an El Nino could form sometime from October to December and will be weak if it does, the center said.
Also last week, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said there is still a chance an El Nino could form by the end of the year.
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