Aon Launches Real-Time Loss Forecasting for U.S. Hurricanes, European Windstorms

September 9, 2019

Aon plc has launched Automated Event Response (AER), designed to enable insurers to view real-time portfolio risks from two of the costliest perils: U.S. hurricane and European windstorm.

Insurers, which aim to indemnify customers as soon as possible after a catastrophe, need to understand which areas have been impacted in a timely manner to prioritize claims response, and obtain quick loss estimates to inform their stakeholders, explained Aon.

To help achieve this, Aon’s Impact Forecasting team has developed real time loss modeling by combining weather forecasts from from different meteorological institutions, including the National Hurricane Center in the U.S., with an insurer’s portfolio data.

The modeling process is fully automated with email alerts – forecasting losses and claims count for the next five days – sent to insurers every six hours when the losses go above a pre-agreed threshold, said Aon. Insurers will be able to use this information to prioritize their claims adjustment activities, such as when, where, and how many adjusters are needed.

Aon put the need for such a tool by pointing out since 2016, insured losses have reached more than US$83 billion following hurricane landfalls from such storms as Harvey, Irma, Michael, Florence and Matthew. In Europe, seasonal windstorms have resulted in nearly US$9 billion in claims payouts, including billion-dollar industry events like Friederike and Eberhard.

“As insurers embrace technology to obtain quicker, more accurate insights and react more efficiently, the automated event response service allows clients to receive regular and timely email updates in the hours leading up to an event’s arrival,” said Adam Podlaha, head of Aon’s Impact Forecasting team.

“This enables insurers to begin to prepare ahead of time to ensure proper planning for their own customers’ needs.”

The AER service is based on Impact Forecasting’s U.S. hurricane and European windstorm models which have been calibrated using extensive detailed loss data from historical events that created significant economic impacts, Aon said.

Source: Aon

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