Insured Losses from Typhoon Hagibis Estimated at $7B-$11B: RMS

November 1, 2019

Insured losses stemming from Typhoon Hagibis in Japan are estimated to range between US$$7 billion and $11 billion, according to Newark, Calif.-based catastrophe modeling firm RMS.

While last month’s Typhoon Faxai was a wind-driven event, RMS estimates typhoon flooding from Hagibis contributes significantly to the overall losses in the event, approaching 60 percent of the total insured loss. RMS estimated the insured loss from Faxai to be between US$5 billion to $9 billion.

Margaret Joseph, senior product manager of the RMS Japan Typhoon Model, said, “The combined losses from the two recent storms, Typhoon Hagibis and Typhoon Faxai, could rival insured losses from Typhoon Jebi that struck Japan last year.”

RMS said its loss estimate from Typhoon Hagibis includes property damage and business interruption caused by typhoon wind and typhoon flood to residential, commercial, industrial, marine, and automobile lines, and includes both the private and kyosai/mutual markets, said RMS.

Additional factors for post-event loss amplification and non-modeled losses include demand surge and claims inflation impacts associated with overlapping of areas impacted by the recent Typhoon Faxai, and widespread damage to infrastructure.

The circumstances of this event — chiefly Typhoon Faxai hitting one month earlier and the ensuing widespread flooding — make Hagibis a complex event to model, explained RMS.

The industry loss estimate is informed based on analysis of the RMS reconstructed wind field and flood footprint using the RMSĀ® Japan Typhoon HD model. In addition, the estimate includes additional factors based on data and insights from field reconnaissance by RMS modelers.

Three RMS teams surveyed affected areas over two weeks to better understand this event. Field reconnaissance provides factual details about the geographical extent and severity of hazard and impact that cannot be ascertained readily through photographs of the damage circulated in the media.

Source: RMS

Photograph: Driftwood is piled around a bridge after Typhoon Hagibis hits the town in Marumori, Miyagi prefecture, northern Japan on Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2019. Photo credit: Kyodo News via AP.


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