G20 Climate Targets Show Acceleration in Reducing CO2, LSEG Says

Global efforts to slash emissions are set to pick up significantly in the years to come.

That’s according to an analysis of the Group of 20 countries by London Stock Exchange Group Plc. The findings, which point to “a material acceleration in global emission cuts post 2030,” are based on official submissions to the United Nations, as well as public announcements from government officials.

“It’s not all doom and gloom,” said Jaakko Kooroshy, LSEG’s global head of sustainable-investment research. The implied emissions cuts amount to “material progress, even though we remain off track for below 2C,” he said. LSEG’s analysis indicates an additional reduction in greenhouse gas pollution of as much as 18% over five years, compared with existing 2030 targets.

Only 64 countries, representing about a third of global emissions, submitted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by the Sept. 30 deadline. That’s fueled concerns that world leaders won’t be able to deliver an ambitious climate agenda at this month’s United Nations COP30 summit in Brazil.

“An inconclusive summit in Belem could still derail the NDC process,” which requires that NDCs are lodged every five years, LSEG said. “Conversely, a COP30 anchored by firmed-up 2035 commitments from major actors could keep the Paris Agreement on track and underscore the resilience of the NDC mechanism in the face of major headwinds.”

Looming over this year’s COP, which begins with a leaders’ summit later this week, is the US’s retreat from the 2015 Paris Agreement, which is due to take effect in January. The White House also confirmed last week that high-level US officials won’t attend the climate conference.

LSEG said while the UN’s NDC report only includes countries that submitted reports through the end of September, its own analysis also comprises announcements from October, which it says has “shifted the landscape.”

For now, 2035 targets set by G20 economies representing 71% of the group’s emissions indicate “substantial new climate commitments,” LSEG said. The data show that the targets imply a reduction of 3.3-to-4.4 gigatons of carbon-dioxide equivalent, compared with the 2030 NDCs.

Faster emissions reductions are mainly tied to progress made in China and Turkey, LSEG said.

The European Union is still aiming to find consensus among its 27 member states on a proposed emissions plan. India hasn’t signaled when it will deliver its NDC. There is a US plan from former President Joe Biden, but that’s unlikely to be implemented under current President Donald Trump.

LSEG said progress on NDCs isn’t just a matter for COP30 attendees. It has “important implications” for companies and investors because they “will have to contend with an increase in both transition risks — as governments seek to accelerate the shift to a low-carbon economy — and growing physical risks.”

Photograph: A gas flare; photo credit: Bronte Wittpenn/Bloomberg