Poland Expects Russia to Escalate Sabotage After Rail Explosion

Poland’s deputy prime minister said he expects Russia to escalate its sabotage activities in the country following an explosion on a busy rail route to Ukraine for which authorities blame Moscow.

Krzysztof Gawkowski told Bloomberg News that the NATO member’s civilian population and critical infrastructure were at risk as the Kremlin intensifies efforts to deter Poles from supporting Ukraine.

Polish authorities said Russian intelligence was behind the blast, an accusation rejected by Moscow as “Russophobia.” The incident, which the European Union called “state-sponsored terrorism,” came about two months after 19 Russian military drones flew deep into Polish airspace.

A frontline member on NATO’s eastern flank, Poland shares borders with Russia and Kremlin ally Belarus. The country has bolstered its military in recent years to become one of the alliance’s biggest defense spenders as a share of gross domestic product.

“We can’t rule out escalation every six weeks or so,” Gawkowski said, adding that Russia’s attempts to undermine the country could take the form of disinformation or terror attacks.

“Escalation will continue, and I see it in various areas. I see it in threats to civilians. I see it in threats to critical infrastructure. I see it in cyberspace. I see it everywhere where Poles can be harmed,” said the deputy prime minister.

Russia’s subversive activities were accompanied by intense social-media campaigns blaming Ukrainians for acts of sabotage, said Gawkowski, who oversees the country’s cybersecurity. Polish authorities were working with tech firms to quickly phase out Kremlin-funded disinformation, he said.

Millions of Ukrainians fled to Poland after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, where many remain. Although the country has been a staunch supporter of Kyiv, attitudes toward Ukrainians have soured in recent years amid a surging nationalist mood.

Gawkowski said that as Ukraine negotiated a US-led peace plan, it was important for European allies to remain skeptical of Russia’s intentions. Poland has warned against reengaging with Moscow by reviving business links severed by sanctions and outrage over the full-scale invasion.

“There are countries in western Europe that claim that the war needs to be over soon, and we need to get back to business with Russia,” Gawkowski said. “Their thinking hasn’t changed — it’s still ‘the more business we do, the more civilized Russia becomes’.”

For Poland, preventing future Russian aggression meant that any peace deal should give Ukraine a sense of accomplishment for its war efforts, he said.

“If they know they didn’t fight in vain, they’ll be able to rebuild their identity more easily,” Gawkowski said, adding that a strong Ukraine with strong morale could continue to be a barrier to Russia.

The alternative, he said, would be the rise of a mindset that Ukraine can’t escape Russian domination, which would also be dangerous for Poland.

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