Merchant Ships Desert Strait of Hormuz Amid Renewed US Strikes

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz appeared all but deserted on Thursday as commercial operators remain wary of renewed military escalation.No commercial vessels were spotted transiting the waterway Thursday morning as tensions spiked following a second round of US strikes against Iranian military targets this week. The halt follows a sluggish Wednesday, which saw just six two-way crossings, including a Turkish Suezmax entering to load cargo in the Persian Gulf, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

Iran claimed that several ships attempted unauthorized entry into the Persian Gulf last night, some of which turned back, while two were stopped. The assertion remains unverified, with heavy signal jamming and disabled navigation systems obscuring actual transits. Tehran also said 26 ships crossed the strait in the past day, which could include smaller, coastal vessels.

President Donald Trump said no single nation would be allowed to control the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring one of the central obstacles to securing a lasting agreement with Iran. The comments came after American forces intercepted Iranian drones aimed at a commercial vessel and destroyed a nearby launch unit. The US Treasury also announced sanctions against Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority, accusing the agency of extorting ships to profit from the region’s instability.

TotalEnergies SE CEO Patrick Pouyanne warned that a prolonged blockade threatens the global economy, adding that he does not expect free navigation to return soon, newspaper Le Figaro reported, citing an interview with the executive. While the oil major recently freed three of its 11 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, Pouyanne said he would pursue other redress mechanisms rather than pay Iranian tolls.

A Chinese oil product tanker sailed out toward China on Wednesday, followed by an Iranian fuel carrier and a Greek-linked bulker.

Wednesday’s inbound traffic included the Turkish Suezmax Ottoman Equity that entered after disabling its transponder, alongside two container ships entering the Gulf.

Widespread interference with signals on the industry’s Automatic Identification System continues to cloud the picture, making independent verification of ship traffic difficult. As a result, transit counts may later be revised upward when vessels reappear further from high-risk waters.

The US naval presence may also be distorting the observations. Iran-linked vessels entering or leaving the Gulf could be switching off AIS signals to avoid detection, making it harder to track flows in real time.

Even before the US barred movement to and from Iranian ports, it was common for Iran-linked vessels to “go dark” when approaching Hormuz. Signals were often not restored until well into the Strait of Malacca — around 13 days’ sailing from Iran’s Kharg Island.

NOTES:

Because vessels can move without transmitting their location until they’re well away from Hormuz, automated positioning signals were compiled over a large area covering the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea to detect those that may have departed or entered the Persian Gulf.

When potential transits are identified, signal histories are examined to determine whether the movement appears genuine or is the result of spoofing — where electronic interference can falsify the apparent position of a ship.

Some transits may not have been detected if vessels’ transponders haven’t been switched back on. Iran-linked oil tankers often steam from the Persian Gulf without broadcasting signals until they reach the Strait of Malacca about 10 days after passing Fujairah in the UAE. Other ships may be adopting similar tactics and won’t show up on tracking screens for many days.

This tracker will be published during heightened tensions involving Iran, and aims to capture traffic for all classes of commercial shipping.

Photograph: Boats anchored off the coast of Bandar Abbas, Iran; photo credit: Majid Saeedi/Getty Images

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