Update: ‘Chronic’ Heat Risk in Europe Draws Warning From Swiss Re Unit

As Europe comes to grips with its fifth heat wave this year, the research arm of Swiss Re AG is warning of far-reaching consequences that may not yet be fully understood.

Though Europe’s wildfire risk “is still considered moderate, the increase in fire activity warrants closer attention,” Swiss Re Institute said on Tuesday. “As heat in Europe increases, wildfire-conducive conditions are likely to become more frequent.”

Fueled by extreme heat, wildfires in France, Spain and Greece have caused as much as €19.1 billion ($22 billion) in total damage and economic loss this summer, according to a preliminary estimate by AccuWeather. Heat and drought will continue to keep Europe’s wildfire risk elevated into the fall, the weather-tracking firm said.

“Europe’s recent wildfires highlight how hotter and drier conditions are making large wildfires more likely, and — with more homes, businesses and infrastructure built in risk-exposed areas — also more costly,” Balz Grollimund, head of catastrophe perils at Swiss Re, said in a statement.

“Record heat underscores Europe’s chronic heat risk,” the authors of the Swiss Re Institute report said.

The comments follow a report last month by Munich Re AG, in which it warned of the “dangerous mix” posed by El Niño and global warming. The analyses fit into a developing picture in which the insurance industry finds itself bracing for a new era of risk brought on by relentless temperature rises that are disrupting weather patterns.

Extreme heat has now left most of England gripped by drought conditions that are impacting harvests. Elsewhere in Europe, rivers crucial to transporting key commodities are drying up.

The temperature in Europe is rising at almost twice the rate as in the rest of the world, with potentially “severe” consequences for the continent, the authors of the Swiss Re Institute report wrote. Europe now experiences 64% more hot days — defined as days on which the maximum temperature reaches 30C or more — than in the 1950s, they said.

The warning comes despite the decline in insured losses tied to natural catastrophes in the first half of 2026. Swiss Re Institute puts the figure at $42 billion, which it noted is “well below the long-term trend.” The most destructive event was the Venezuela earthquakes in which more than 5,000 people died, it said.

Severe convective storms, such as thunderstorms, hail and tornadoes, generated smaller first-half losses than in previous years, though Swiss Re Institute said that “the relatively low insured losses were not a result of subdued storm activity.” It also warned that a “quiet first half is not necessarily indicative of below-average annual losses,” adding that the long-term “upward trend in insured losses is intact.”

A key risk for insurers to focus on now is how the world — and Europe in particular — adapts to rising temperatures, with wildfire risk a particular concern. Europe’s “extensive wildland–urban interface zones mean that a severe fire near densely populated areas could still generate substantial economic losses,” Swiss Re Institute said.

Photograph: Firefighters try to contain a fire at a warehouse facility during a wildfire near Oraiokastro, a suburb of Thessaloniki, Greece, on July. 4, 2026; photo credit: Konstantinos Tsakalidis/Bloomberg

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