US Farmers Are Pulling Back on Spending in Threat to Rural Economy

Sunny skies and mild temperatures this week greeted the biggest US farm show of the year. The contrast couldn’t be greater with the sentiment among attendees as low crop prices and trade tariffs squeeze the agricultural sector.

The market for American crops is getting “pretty nasty,” said Scott Metzger, who drove more than 300 miles (482 kilometers) to attend. That helped to keep the mood subdued at the Farm Progress Show this week in Illinois.

Metzger grows soybeans, corn and wheat in central Ohio, and he said farmers are dealing with too much chaos to think about spending this year on big-ticket items like the gleaming tractors and combines on display. It’s the latest sign of trouble for the US farm economy.

America’s farmers are expecting bumper crops this fall, but they’ve got little idea of where all the supplies will go. China, historically the biggest buyer of US soybeans, hasn’t inked a deal for a single cargo from this year’s harvest, which starts next month. Blowback from President Donald Trump’s trade war has served to further chill the administration’s already icy relationship with the Asian country.

Tariff tensions are making the North American farm market the most uncertain in the world even as conditions in Europe and Asia start to improve, according to Gerrit Marx, chief executive officer of CNH Industrial NV, which unveiled some its latest machinery at the show. There are so many unknowns in the US agricultural economy, several companies that had a significant presence at the annual gathering in 2024 ended up skipping altogether this year — that included seed maker Corteva Inc. and the world’s top fertilizer producer Nutrien Ltd.

“Farming in the US will change,” Marx said in an interview, noting that growers are trying to figure out how to adapt to shifting conditions.

“The fields will all be green. The question is: What grows? And for what purpose? And at what price?,” he said. “It takes time for those chess pieces to move around the board, and we’re kind of in that period today.”

America’s farmers, a key voting bloc for President Donald Trump, are growing increasingly worried as harvest approaches.

The US Department of Agriculture is forecasting a record corn crop for the season starting in September. While the soy harvest is expected to be smaller than last year after farmers planted less, yields are on track to hit a new high. That means farmers will face a mountain of supplies just as trade tensions with China dim prospects for American exports. Crop prices have been depressed as a result. Tariffs are also raising costs for key farm inputs like fertilizer, adding to the financial strain.

The American Soybean Association has warned that growers are near a “trade and financial precipice” and cannot survive a prolonged trade war with China. The National Corn Growers Association is sounding the alarm over an economic crisis in rural America. Credit conditions for farmers “deteriorated steadily” in the second quarter, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City report. Bankruptcies are also on the rise.

Companies including CNH, Deere & Co. and AGCO Corp. showed off their new machines this week at the Illinois farm show. The equipment featured the latest technology — farmers can now do things like connect tractors to the Internet to help them plant and harvest more accurately while they stay comfortable in air-conditioned cabins. The problem is, few farmers there were looking to buy.

Metzger of Ohio is a sixth-generation farmer who manages more than 3,000 acres with family members. He’s installing some drainage tile in his fields, but not planning for upgrades to his equipment fleet. “We’re running stuff a little bit longer than what we used to,” he said.

“Things are tight,” said Metzger, who serves as vice president of the American Soybean Association. “Commodity prices aren’t the highest. Input prices, though, are just astronomical.”

Machinery makers are contending with levies on steel and aluminum, raising US manufacturing costs while demand stays tepid. Deere is laying off dozens of workers at facilities in Iowa and Illinois. The company is also planning to invest almost $20 billion in US manufacturing over the next decade.

Marx of CNH said things could start to rebound from here as farmers adjust to the shifts for trade, turning this year into a “trough” for the farm-machinery sector, he said.

Matt Jungmann, senior director of events at Farm Progress, said that while purchases of new machinery look light, some growers are making smaller investments. They’re looking at getting new parts or fresh tires, he said.

“The farmers know these cycles,” Jungmann said. “There’s still stuff that has to be done.”

The Trump administration did give farmers a boost with increased biofuel blending guidelines for use of fuels made from soy and corn. Crop insurance protection increased with “transformative changes” under Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Even then, the concerns over trade with China loom large.

“We have a lot of crops this year,” said Eric Hansotia, CEO of AGCO. “So we need a deal with China. If and when we can get that, that would be a big unlock for the market.”

Top photo: A combine harvester cuts rows of corn and transfers kernels to the hopper during a harvest at Triple Run Farm in Dockery, Mississippi, US, on Thursday, Aug. 14, 2025. Chicago corn futures fell to the lowest level in nearly a year after the US Department of Agriculture raised its already record-large outlook for the American harvest. (Alan Chin/Bloomberg)