EQECAT and AER Announce Advanced Hurricane Forecasting

July 21, 2000

EQETrac EQECAT and Atmospheric and Environmental Research have made available the EQETrac, an advanced proprietary real-time hurricane forecasting system. The system provides subscribers with probabilistic estimates of hurricane landfall locations, windspeed at landfall, industry damage and loss estimates, and other storm parameters in advance of landfall.

Subscribers also have the option of receiving a probabilistic estimate of their own portfolio’s damage and loss from the impending storm. All information is transmitted in a secure manner over the Internet. EQETrac uses a proprietary hurricane track forecasting system developed at AER, using work done at MIT.

It is based on a physical storm model that couples the atmosphere and ocean layers and runs in ensemble mode. This design provides a clear picture of the probabilistic development of the storm’s direction and parameters. These forecasts are then fed into the EQETrac Storm Analyzer System to develop a single probabilistic expression of the storm’s location, magnitude, damage, and loss.

The EQETrac Storm Analyzer uses EQECAT’s hurricane model, USWind, and industry property database, EQEStock, to develop the damage and loss estimates.

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