Cotality estimates that the recent Central Texas flash floods caused $1.1 billion in damage to residential buildings, with the National Flood Insurance Program providing as much as $135 million in insurance recoveries to home and business owners across the impacted counties.
The Central Texas flash floods over the July 4 weekend caused roughly $1.1 billion in damage to residential buildings. Yet, the impact of the floods will likely have a limited effect on primary insurers and reinsurers.
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Food insurance penetration in the region is sparse, so most losses will fall on homeowners rather than insurers, leaving households to shoulder nearly all reconstruction costs and expose a significant insurance gap. Homes along the outside edge of the flood risk zone may have the fewest insurance resources. Because of the amount of time and resources required to generate a highly accurate flood map, the 500-year flood-zone line marks the limit of data and budget, not a barrier that stops water.
Homes at Risk
Cotality analyzed the broad swath of impacted area across Central Texas. This initial analysis estimated that more than 38,600 residential structures were within the flood footprint of counties deemed eligible for individual and public assistance by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and may have experienced flood damage. Of these counties, Tom Green, Travis, Kerr, Williamson and Burnet are home to the most significant number of residential properties potentially impacted by flooding.
Related: Long-Standing Problems Led Up to Deadly Texas Floods, Lawmakers Told
The modeled damage to buildings only includes residential properties and excludes any damage to contents and additional living expenses. Using precipitation and stream-gauge data, Cotality recreated the flood footprint. However, uncertainty persists about flood depth and extent, the share of properties with insurance and the size of their deductibles and limits. Homeowners face the task of repair and recovery, and for some, the task will be undertaken without the financial support of flood insurance.
Flood Insurance Gap
Flood insurance will be the primary mechanism for financial recovery for homeowners with flash flood-damaged property, but flood insurance penetration is low in the counties hit hardest by the flash flooding. Flood insurance is not included in standard homeowner’s insurance; it is only required for homes that have a mortgage within the Special Flood Hazard Area. An initial analysis of the NFIP policies in the nine counties eligible for Federal Individual of Public Assistance shows fewer than 14,000 policies in force.
Mapping Flood Risk
Cotality classified the July 4 Central Texas floods as a 1,000-year rainfall event based on local totals, which far exceeds the 100- and 500-year benchmarks in some areas. The disaster showed that “low risk” zones do not mean zero risk.
Accurate flood zone mapping starts when survey crews record channel shapes, bridge profiles and levees. Engineers convert those measurements into hydraulic models that track how water moves through dams, floodways and culverts. If a model relies only on two-dimensional flow equations and 30-meter elevation grids, it smooths sharp bends and storage pockets, widens flood outlines and lowers reliability.
The storm’s scale underscores the value of merging detailed surveys, engineering plans, and site-specific hydraulics so flood models trace more accurate flow paths and give planners more actionable guidance for mitigation.
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