Rival Insurance Pros Assess Super Bowl Risks and Probability of Loss

By Amy O'Connor and Don Jergler | February 3, 2016
super-bowl-50-carolina-panthers-and-denver-broncos

Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton can be wild and the Denver Broncos’ Peyton Manning is no spring chicken. Which QB is the best insurance risk? Insurance Journal wanted to learn how insurance professionals assess that and other risks associated with this year’s Super Bowl and, of course, which team is going to win.

NFL football is a risky game, and few know risk better than insurance professionals.

With teams letting it all hang out in the final game of the season, there’s no shortage of thoughts about who will win the Super Bowl 50.

But first…. North Carolina Insurance Commissioner Wayne Goodwin and Colorado Insurance Commissioner Marguerite Salazar have placed a friendly wager. If the Carolina Panthers win, Salazar will owe Goodwin Colorado elk tenderloin, whiskey and toffee. If the Denver Broncos win, Goodwin owes North Carolina barbecue, craft beer and Cheerwine soda.

Insurance Journal sought out insurance professionals from both regions representing the two teams and asked them for their thoughts on the big game – keeping risk, and team loyalty, in mind. The Carolina Panthers currently are 5.5-point favorites over the Denver Broncos in Vegas, which is why the Panthers kick off here.

 

Carolina Panthers helmetPANTHERS

Tim Turner II, a business risk consultant with Main Street Insurance Group in Charlotte, N.C.

Why do the Panthers deserve to win?
They believed in themselves when nobody else did. I will admit when news came out that Kelvin Benjamin tore his ACL in training camp I had my doubts on the season. They have proved us all wrong and they have showed they are not dependent on any one player, they are a team.  An article by Chris Wesseling from Around the NFL on Aug. 19, 2015 says “The loss of a difference-making talent such as Benjamin limits their ceiling, however, crushing dreams of an extended postseason run.” The Panthers are doing the crushing!

What player will score the first points?
This matchup is hosting two of the best defenses in the league but the Panthers ranked No. 1 in scoring in both the regular and postseason. I see Cam Newton battling his way into the end zone for the first score of the game. It would only be appropriate that the ball end up with an excited young fan that will never forget getting that football from Cam Newton after the first score of Super Bowl 50!

Who will win the coin toss?
Panthers win the toss and defer to receive the ball first in the second half. They shut down Peyton Manning’s offense on their opening drive (Broncos ranked 19th in scoring on the regular season). Panthers march down and score the first point of the game.

What’s the strangest play that will happen in the game?
The Carolina Panther’s defense wreaks havoc on opposing offenses, they led the NFL in interceptions in the regular and postseason. The strangest play will involve pressure on Peyton Manning, I can see a crazy fumble or interception that will result in one of the Broncos many turnovers in the game.

What’s the final score?
Panthers 33-17

Give us a risk assessment of the opposing team (ie. Why will they lose)?
The Broncos have some major issues and I’m afraid they are too far past Loss Control recommendations, if they were an Insured they would be getting a non-renewal notice. Carolina Panther’s linebacker Luke Kuechly has the same amount of touchdowns this postseason as the Denver Bronco’s wide receiving corps. The Denver Broncos have some solid defensive statistics but they have not had to face the NFL’s No. 1 scoring team which has too many weapons to shut down. Cam Newton is one win away from being the first ever QB to win the Heisman, National Championship, NFL MVP & Super Bowl, one win! Peyton Manning will be the oldest quarterback to play in a Super Bowl, I’m not sure that’s a favorable statistic.

Newton can be wild and Manning is no spring chicken. Which QB is the best insurance risk? Which would you insure?
I don’t agree that “wild” is the appropriate description for Cam. Yes, he wears his emotions on his sleeve, but he’s earned the right to do it, (and) he doesn’t obnoxiously taunt the other team’s players. Cam Newton has the inside track to win this season’s MVP award, Peyton Manning was the NFL MVP in 2013 and 2009 and both of those seasons he lost in the Super Bowl. Fortunately, Cam Newton is not Peyton Manning!

 

Denver Broncos helmetBRONCOS

Carole Walker, executive director of the Rocky Mountain Insurance Information Association

Why do the Broncos deserve to win?
Football fans everywhere are hoping for an Elway Cinderella send-off for Peyton Manning – one of the biggest talents and class acts that ever played the game. The Broncos have fought to the end for every win and they are playing as a team with the Denver defense ranked No. 1 in the league. Risk management assessment: talent, experience, commitment to win give the Broncos the edge.

What player will score the first points?
Demaryius Thomas

Who will win the coin toss?
Denver Broncos

What’s the strangest play that will happen in the game?
Broncos win with 20 seconds left on a TD and 2-point conversion.

What’s the final score?
Broncos 21-20

Give us a risk assessment of the opposing team (ie. Why will they lose)?
Carolina’s offense will falter to Broncos’ defense and experience.

Newton can be wild and Manning is no spring chicken. Which QB is the best insurance risk? Which would you insure?
My insurance bet puts the odds on Manning – that’s weighing experience, predictable performance and spreading the risk amongst running game, offense and defense. Newton is the higher risk – inexperienced, unpredictable, a lower investment in winning. This is Manning’s last chance at a ring – that’s an edge that defies underwriting.

 

Carolina Panthers helmetPANTHERS

Mike Mitchell, underwriting manager with Risk Placement Services, Charlotte, N.C.

Why do the Panthers deserve to win?
The Carolina Panthers deserve to win because the “experts” ruled them down and out when their top receiver went down in training camp. Since then they have been rarely favored by the experts to win games, they deserve a chance to finally silent all the critics with a statement win at the Super Bowl!

What player will score the first points?
The Panthers will score first. This season the Panthers have scored first in 13 of their 18 games.  Whether the on fire offense receives the first kick off or the defense returns a Peyton Manning interception for a TD, the Panthers will score first.

Who will win the coin toss?
Broncos will win. It will be the only thing they win that day.

What’s the strangest play that will happen in the game?
The Broncos cannot stop Cam Newton and the potent Panthers offense and are forced to onside kick in the third quarter.

What’s the final score?
Panthers 31-19

Give us a risk assessment of the opposing team (ie. Why will they lose)?
Carolina’s fast starting offense will force the Broncos to take risks and the Panthers defense will capitalize on the mistakes that come with high risk plays.

Newton can be wild and Manning is no spring chicken. Which QB is the best insurance risk? Which would you insure?
Being a transportation underwriter, I would rather insure Cam Newton over Peyton Manning. Peyton’s wear and tear over the years make him susceptible to breakdown and causing a catastrophic loss (The Super Bowl). Cam Newton has a nice insurance policy with Michael Oher protecting him as well. Though Cam may take some chances to run the ball, he has a stronger frame to endure hurricane force hits.

 

Denver Broncos helmetBRONCOS

Kent Fortune, vice president and general manager of USAA Colorado Springs

Why do the Broncos deserve to win?
They have been preparing for this game for the last few years; especially, after the loss to the Seahawks in 2014. They deserve this win! It would be great to be champs again after a 16-year wait.

What player will score the first points?
I’m predicting a nice 35-yard touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas from Peyton!

Who will win the coin toss?
Broncos will win the flip and defer to secure the second half kickoff.

What’s the strangest play that will happen in the game?
There will be a second coming of “the run.” Peyton Manning will run 12 yards for a first down that helps Denver win the game.

What’s the final score?
Denver 24-21

Give us a risk assessment of the opposing team (ie. Why will they lose)?
Broncos play close games and perform well when the score is tight. It seems Carolina struggles when the margin of victory is less than 15, and in those games, Cam Newton’s completion percentage is less than 60. Carolina hasn’t been in a close game this playoff season, but the Broncos have, and they come ready to play.

Newton can be wild and Manning is no spring chicken. Which QB is the best insurance risk? Which would you insure?
USAA provides insurance for members of the military and their families. If Peyton and Cam qualified for membership, we’d love to insure them! For now, we’ll stick to cheering them on through our Salute to Service commitment to honor and thank our military and their families.

 

Carolina Panthers helmetPANTHERS

Garrett Droege, executive director of  TechAssure Association, Inc. in Charlotte, N.C.

Why do the Broncos/Panthers deserve to win?
The Panthers deserve to win because they’ve proven to be the best team overall this year. Everyone loves a heartwarming story, and there’s no doubt that Manning winning his last Super Bowl would make for a great punctuation mark to an amazing career. However, the Broncos have not been consistent this year and are not the better team overall.

What player will score the first points?
The game is likely to be a shootout. Both Cam and Peyton are effective at putting up high numbers, but both defenses are just as capable at preventing scores. Cam scores the first touchdown, likely on their first possession. Look for a deep pass to Ginn Jr., a slant to Olsen or Cam running it in himself.

Who will win the coin toss?
Broncos will get the toss and elect to kickoff, taking the chance to own the first possession of the second half.

What’s the strangest play that will happen in the game?
Luke Kuechly robs Peyton, not once but twice, both resulting in TDs.

What’s the final score?
Panthers 27-21

Give us a risk assessment of the opposing team (ie. Why will they lose)?
In reviewing the risk, their chief operator, Peyton Manning, has a history of work-related injuries. It’s unknown if he is prone to being injured or if his coworkers, the Denver Offensive Line, are causing the injuries to occur. They’ve had significant management changes over the past few years, with their CEO, head coach Gary Kubiak, only serving in his current role for one year. In additional to Manning’s injury-prone recent history, his age has become a factor in job effectiveness. His careless ball-handling has resulted in 17 interceptions this season. Their defense, including future hall of famers Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, is also relatively new – with Wade Phillips (also a liability; see Cowboys) new 3-4 defense still causing workflow confusion for some. It has been effective this year, but is nothing that their chief competitor, the Panthers, haven’t seen and overcome.

Newton can be wild and Manning is no spring chicken. Which QB is the best insurance risk? Which would you insure?
After careful review and thorough underwriting, Cam Newton appears to be a much better risk. His age makes him less prone to injury, as does his physical stature. Peyton Manning has had a storied career and is one of the greatest QBs of all time. That being said, we are concerned with his recent work-related injuries. After his most recent injury, rather than placing him in a return to work program as recommended, he was placed back into his former position with little warmup or preparation. There is also a recent allegation of drug use (PEDs), which he denies. Nevertheless, we would like to see the case independently reviewed prior to determining that he did not, in fact, use illegal substances to improve job effectiveness. Cam Newton with his youth, size and Superman-like skills is the better risk. After all, not even flipping his truck and breaking his back seemed to slow him down.

 

Denver Broncos helmetBRONCOS

Amber Averill, broker/owner of Averill Insurance in Colorado Springs, Colo.

Why do the Broncos/Panthers deserve to win?
The Broncos deserve to win because Manning is a great QB who needs another Super Bowl ring before he retires! He has collected so many NFL records (ex: career passing yards) and I feel that it is time to collect another ring!

What player will score the first points?
I want to see Denver score a TD first so I will say Ronnie Hillman will score the first points. So far this year he has the most touchdowns for Denver. He is hard to stop and determined. Although, to be quite honest it could also be our kicker, McManus, who scores the first points.

Who will win the coin toss?
Denver is going to win the coin toss. That is how we will score the first points. Immediately!

What’s the strangest play that will happen in the game?
Cam Newton will get an “excessive celebration” penalty for his “dab” dance.  Dab means something completely different to folks in Colorado.  So we all thought it was a strange name for this dance from the get go.

What’s the final score?
Denver 21-28

Give us a risk assessment of the opposing team (ie. Why will they lose)?
The Panthers are 17-and-1 for a reason. They are a very good team. However, they may be overconfident and that could lead to them letting their guard down and resulting in a Broncos win!

Newton can be wild and Manning is no spring chicken. Which QB is the best insurance risk? Which would you insure?
Insurance companies prefer risks in Manning’s age demographic over the younger males. We all know that younger male operators are a very high risk. Given Newton’s cockiness and prior accident in 2015, I think Manning would be the better risk.

 

Carolina Panthers helmetPANTHERS

Jessica Klecz, personal and commercial lines CSR with Leaco Insurance Services, Inc., in Rocky Mount, N.C.

Why do the Broncos deserve to win?
I would love to see the Panthers win as it would be the cherry on top for a great season filled with wins. With only one loss this season, the Panthers have shown that they are worthy of a Super Bowl win!

What player will score the first points?
I think that the first quarter will be a tight game between two talented teams. Because of that, I feel like Graham Gano will be the first scorer.

Who will win the coin toss?
I think that the Panthers will win the coin toss, they are on a roll so it is only logical that their luck will extend to the coin toss.

What’s the strangest play that will happen in the game?
Kurt Coleman intercepting a beautiful pass by Peyton Manning and returning it for a touchdown.

What’s the final score?
Panthers 21-17

Give us a risk assessment of the opposing team (ie. Why will they lose)?
I think the other team has skilled players, including Peyton Manning, but they are not as complete of a team as the Panthers. Peyton Manning is 39 years old and has not had the cleanest bill of health over the past 5 years. I don’t think their offense will be able to push past the strong Carolina defense.

Newton can be wild and Manning is no spring chicken. Which QB is the best insurance risk? Which would you insure?
I think the best insurance risk between Newton and Manning is Newton. Cam may have less experience, but he shows that he is versatile, talented and he is healthy. I would feel more confident insuring Cam, but I might have to put a good General Liability policy on him if he keeps pounding the way he has done this year!

 

Denver Broncos helmetBRONCOS

David W. Adams, vice president of ISU Insurance Services of Colorado Inc.

Why do the Broncos/Panthers deserve to win?
Everybody loves a happy ending to a long and storied career, Hollywood can’t write scripts this good.  After the Broncos win the only problem Hollywood will have is finding an actor tall enough to play Brock Osweiler. Proceeds from the movie can go to the NFL concussion fund. Manning will ride off into the sunset atop Thunder, the Broncos mascot.

What player will score the first points?
First points will be scored by Demarcus Ware by tackling Cam Newton for a safety. On the second play of the game.

Who will win the coin toss?
Broncos on the second toss of the coin as the first toss didn’t flip.

What’s the strangest play that will happen in the game?
Payton Manning will have the longest run of the game with a wild scramble for 53 yards. Manning ends up finishing the game with pulled hamstrings and a victory.

What’s the final score?
Broncos 29-24

Give us a risk assessment of the opposing team (ie. Why will they lose)?
Over confidence, feeling of invincibility, know it all attitude that comes along with being young. In this sense the Panthers are like teenage drivers. They don’t know how serious a situation they’re in. You hope they just come back in one piece.

Newton can be wild and Manning is no spring chicken. Which QB is the best insurance risk? Which would you insure?
Manning. There is something to be said about understanding that your decisions could have drastic consequences during the big game. Knowing how to use the pressure to keep yourself razor sharp and focused on the task at hand. Therefore, Manning would be a safe insurance risk. Cam is crazy. He thinks he’s Superman. Can you say concussions?

 

Tim Turner Super Bowl

Tim Turner II, a business risk consultant at Main Street Insurance Group in Charlotte, N.C., with his sister, Amy Horne, at a Panthers game.

 

xxixoxox

RiskPlacement Services has “Panther Pride Days” every Friday. A few people shown are “dabbing” (Cam Newton’s signature move).

 

Carol Walker, executive director of the Rocky Mountain Insurance Information Association, at Mile high stadium for the Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs game in 2014.

Carol Walker, executive director of the Rocky Mountain Insurance Information Association, at Mile High stadium for the Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs game in 2014.

 

Kent Fortune, vice president and general manager of USAA Colorado Springs, sporting his Denver Broncos jersey.

Kent Fortune, vice president and general manager of USAA Colorado Springs, sporting his Denver Broncos jersey.

 

H. Garrett Droege, executive director of TechAssure Association Inc. in Charlotte, N.C., right, with a client at the Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals game.

H. Garrett Droege, executive director of TechAssure Association Inc. in Charlotte, N.C., right, with a client at the Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals game.

 

Amber Averil, broker/owner of Averill Insurance in Colorado Springs, Colo., and her daughter Sierra Cordova-Averill, a CSR and marketing expert for the firm, are big Broncos fans.

Amber Averil, broker/owner of Averill Insurance in Colorado Springs, Colo., and daughter Sierra Cordova-Averill, a CSR and marketing expert for the firm. The pair are big Broncos fans.

 

Jessica Klecz, personal and commercial lines CSR with Leaco Insurance Services, Inc., in Rocky Mount, N.C., used Photoshop magic to show she's a Panther's fan.

Jessica Klecz, a personal and commercial lines CSR with Leaco Insurance Services Inc., in Rocky Mount, N.C., used Photoshop magic to show she’s a Panther’s fan.

 

Dave Adams, in the Manning jersey, and Pam Adams, in the orange cape, are brother and sister owners of ISU Insurance Services of Colorado Inc. Here they are at a tailgate party with friends at Mile High stadium before the AFC Championship game in which the Broncos advanced against the New England Patriots in a 20-18 duel.

Dave Adams, in the No. 19 Peyton Manning jersey, and Pam Adams, in the orange cape, are brother and sister owners of ISU Insurance Services of Colorado Inc. Here they are at a tailgate party with friends at Mile High stadium before the AFC Championship game in which the Broncos advanced against the New England Patriots in a 20-18 duel.

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Latest Comments

  • February 11, 2016 at 4:51 pm
    Agent says:
    FFA, the best O didn't have much luck against the best D. Reminded me of the 85 Bears who put the hurt on everyone that year. Commercials - For me, it was a tie between the Do... read more
  • February 11, 2016 at 4:05 pm
    FFA says:
    Would have taken less effort and time to go rock paper Scissors... In the End, the best D beat the Best O. Von Miller should have been MVP. And I have noticed, no talk about t... read more
  • February 4, 2016 at 12:04 pm
    Agent says:
    Glenn, I have been following the NFL and numerous Super Bowls for a lot of years. Most have been disappointing because of all the pre game hoopla that goes on ad nauseum. Th... read more
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