Experts Forecast Above-Normal Hurricane Activity Again This Season

The East and Gulf coasts can expect another hurricane season that’s worse than average, according to the head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The Atlantic will have 12 to 15 tropical storms, seven to nine of them becoming hurricanes, and three to five of those hurricanes being major, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr. said, standing in front of a “hurricane hunter” aircraft.

“We can’t predict this far in advance how many will strike land,” he said. But, given the active season, “We would say, ‘Be prepared for two or three of these to make landfall.'”

Last year, 12 to 15 named storms were predicted, including six to eight hurricanes, two to four of them classified major. Instead, there were six major hurricanes out of nine hurricanes and 15 named storms.

Forecasters at Colorado State University also predict a significantly above-average Atlantic hurricane season. In April, William Gray and his team said they expect 13 named storms including seven hurricanes, three of them major.

The hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

Lautenbacher said the eastern and central Pacific are expected to have a lighter-than-normal season. The eastern Pacific can expect 11 to 15 tropical storms, six to eight of them becoming hurricanes, and two to four of them major, Lautenbacher said.

Two or three tropical cyclones are projected for the central Pacific, he said.

The Atlantic seasons were relatively mild from the 1970s through 1994, and all but two since then have been above normal. The world may be just halfway through a 20-year cycle, Lautenbacher said.

Speakers stressed that people need to plan. Experience from Florida’s four hurricanes last year bears out the need for such plans, he said: “People who had a hurricane plan did much better than those who didn’t,” Max Mayfield, head of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Mayfield urged people to pay less attention to the black line which forecasters use for the most likely storm track, and more to the area on either side of it on the forecast map.

Despite great strides in predicting landfall over the past 15 years, the average error during the last 24 hours is still 85 miles, Mayfield said.

“Those storms can literally turn on a dime,” added Mike Brown, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

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Topics Trends Catastrophe Natural Disasters Hurricane