NOAA Predicts Active Atlantic Hurricane Season

The government’s weather center is forecasting that this year’s Atlantic hurricane season that began June 1 will be an active one, perhaps even extremely active, during its six months.

Experts at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which seven to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including three to six major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook is not a hurricane landfall forecast; it does not predict how many storms will hit land or where a storm will strike.

NOAA said that three climate factors that strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity are expected to come together to produce an active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season. These are:

• A continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995;
• Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and
• El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation.

Topics Catastrophe Natural Disasters Hurricane Aerospace