RMS, the Newark, Calif.-based risk modeling and analytics firm, has estimated that the insured loss from Typhoon Faxai will be between $5.0 and $9.0 billion (¥ 500 to ¥950 billion).
This estimate includes property damage and business interruption caused by typhoon wind and coastal flooding to residential, commercial, industrial, marine, and automobile lines – and includes both the private and mutual/kyosai markets, said RMS in a statement.
Additional factors for post-event loss amplification specific to this event, and for non-modeled losses are also included in this estimate. These include: an increase in materials and labor costs due to the forthcoming Summer Olympics, contents and business interruption from extended power outages, and automobile loss.
The estimate is based on analysis of the RMS reconstructed wind field and coastal flood footprint through the Japan Typhoon HD model. In addition, the industry loss estimates include data and insights from analysis of aerial imagery and field reconnaissance by modelers from the RMS Tokyo office.
“The equivalent of a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) at landfall, Typhoon Faxai was one of the strongest landfalling typhoons on record in the Kanto region, and the strongest landfalling typhoon in this region to impact the Greater Tokyo area since Typhoon Ma-on in 2004,” said Margaret Joseph, senior manager, RMS.
“Faxai underwent an eyewall replacement cycle immediately prior to landfall, which weakened wind speeds; however, a wider area experienced the system’s strongest winds as a result of a broadening of the wind field,” she added.
Photograph: In this Sept. 8, 2019, photo, a high wave hits beach as typhoon approaches in Shizuoka city, central Japan. (Kyodo News via AP)
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