CSU, NOAA Maintain Forecasts for Above-Average Hurricane Season

Colorado State University’s hurricane researchers and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued updates to their 2025 Atlantic hurricane forecasts, with both maintaining calls for an ‘above average’ season despite no recorded hurricanes so far.

NOAA’s prediction of an above-average hurricane season remains, though the agency has revised the forecast to 13-18 named storms, five to nine hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.

The revised figures included the four previously named tropical storms this year—Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter. None strengthened to hurricane status.

The likelihood of above-normal activity is 50%, while there is a chance of a 35% near-normal season, and a 15% chance of a below-normal season, said NOAA. Its updated prediction is similar to the initial outlook issued in May.

The team of hurricane researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) in July shaved off a storm from its original Atlantic hurricane season forecast, for a “slightly” above-normal season forecast. In a recently published look at the next two weeks, the team said it is “somewhat favoring above-normal activity” during the span.

Sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal and other weather patterns are neutral, which make favorable conditions for storm formation. “We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean for the remainder of the hurricane season,” CSU said.

CSU maintains its forecast of 16 named storms, eight hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Last year’s record-breaking season included 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

A typical Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes and three becoming major hurricanes.

Topics Catastrophe Natural Disasters Trends Hurricane Aerospace