Winter Storm to Cause Billions of Dollars in Insured Losses: UBS

A major winter storm that hit the United States in recent days is expected to cause billions of dollars in insured losses, analysts at brokerage UBS said in a note.

The heavy storm has left much of the central and eastern U.S. gripped by snow, ice, and below-freezing temperatures. At least 38 people across 14 states had died as of Tuesday, according to local officials and news reports.

The storm started to turn severe on Friday, with the snow snarling road traffic and leading to widespread flight cancellations and power outages. It subsided on Monday, but left behind bitter cold that is expected to linger.

“For insurers, there will likely be meaningful insured losses from commercial property and package policies, homeowners’ insurance policies, and auto insurance,” UBS analysts wrote earlier this week.

Editor’s Note: AM Best Says Low Single Digits to $8B Possible Separately, in a statement on Monday, Sridhar Manyem, senior director, Industry Research and Analytics at AM Best said the rating agency expects losses from Winter Storm Fern “to be manageable for insurers and reinsurers in aggregate.” “The event may not create insured losses at the same magnitude of Winter Storm Uri in February 2021— more than $15 billion—but could rival the $8 billion in insured losses seen from Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022, though early estimates have placed Fern as a low-single-digit billion-dollar insured loss event,” he said. Manyem also noted that the volume of claims will likely cause a significant surge in demand for plumbers and other contractors, spiking insurers’ loss adjustment expenses.

The brokerage added that the 2021 winter storm was the closest comparable event, which resulted in catastrophe losses of between $15 billion and $20 billion for the insurance industry.

Catastrophe losses have intensified over the past few years, significantly hurting profits across the industry, due to substantial payouts tied to widespread property damage, business interruptions and liability claims.

It can often take weeks after such events to arrive at a more accurate figure for insured losses, as claims are filed and assessed.

UBS said it expects the largest share of insured losses from the latest storm to come from commercial property lines, followed by homeowners and personal auto.

Commercial property losses typically arise when extreme cold damages buildings and disrupts operations, including frozen pipes, roof damage and prolonged power outages. Personal auto claims also surge as icy roads and poor visibility lead to accidents and vehicle damage.