California faces a short but sharp rise in temperatures that will boost electricity demand as unusually warm nights offer little relief.
Heat advisories will cover much of California’s coast and Central Valley, including the Bay Area and Los Angeles, through Wednesday and Thursday, the National Weather Service said. More severe extreme heat warnings are in effect across parts of Southern California, including San Diego.
Temperatures across the Los Angeles area are forecast to range from 85F (29C) to 105F, about 10 to 15 degrees above normal, the weather service said. Usually cool San Francisco may reach 86F on Wednesday, while Sacramento is expected to hit 100F Thursday.
“The combination of triple-digit temperatures in parts of Northern California, unusually warm overnight temperatures in major population centers, and elevated humidity in Southern California is expected to push electricity demand significantly higher through Thursday,” said Bradley Harvey, a lead forecaster with Vaisala, a commercial weather company.
The California Independent System Operator, or CAISO, forecasts peak electricity demand of 47,379 megawatts Wednesday, compared with 67,586 megawatts of available capacity, the grid operator said on its website. Demand is expected to climb to 45,183 megawatts Thursday. The all-time high of 52,061 megawatt was set in Sept. 2022.
Renewable generation may offset some of the strain. Solar output estimates are generally between 17 and 18.5 gigawatts, Harvey said. Wind generation is also expected to strengthen late Wednesday and Thursday, adding another 2 to 4 gigawatts.
Power supplies are projected to tighten on Wednesday evening heading around sunset, but the grid operator is still expecting to have reserves to on hand to make it through that period.
Wholesale on-peak power prices in Southern California’s SP15 hub, which includes the Los Angeles metropolitan area, rose as high as $87.69 a megawatt-hour for 6 p.m. on Tuesday, the highest hourly price in the day-ahead market since Aug. 28, according to grid data compiled by Arcus Power’s NRGStream platform. Most power being used today was contracted the prior day in the day-ahead market based on demand forecasts.
Two factors may keep demand elevated even as daytime temperatures begin to ease. The first is unusually warm nights. At least 24 locations across California may set records for high minimum temperatures from Wednesday through Friday, according to the US Weather Prediction Center.
“Persistent warm nighttime temperatures can increase cooling requirements by limiting the ability of homes and businesses to cool naturally between peak heating periods,” Harvey said.
Humidity will add to the discomfort in Southern California following rain across the Los Angeles region, Harvey said. Temperatures in Burbank, a key location for energy-demand metrics north of Los Angeles, may linger in the 90s, but the humidity could make it feel more like the low 100s.
The heat will begin to ease Friday, with noticeably cooler conditions expected by Saturday.
Top photo: High voltage power lines near homes in Crockett, California, on Wednesday, May 24, 2023. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg.
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