More than the Grand Canyon and Copper

By | January 26, 2004

The United States Census Bureau’s Census 2000 estimated the population of the State of Arizona at 5,130,632. Approximately 80 percent of the adult residents had graduated from high school and about 24 percent had earned a bachelor’s degree or higher. The capital, Phoenix, has a population of 1,321,045.

From an employment perspective, the primary industries in Arizona are:

From a P/C insurance perspective, Arizona accounted for $6,343,397,000 of direct written premium. Countrywide as of Sept. 30, 2003 the aggregate is $313,781,216,000 of P/C insurance written. Arizona calendar year 2002 loss ratio was 69 percent, slightly above the year to date Sept. 30, 2003 countrywide loss ratio of 62 percent; however, we expect the aggregate loss ratio for the State of Arizona to approach the countrywide average.

It is interesting to note that as the medical malpractice crisis grips the entire country, medical malpractice premiums comprised 3.2 percent of the Arizona P/C insurance aggregate while the national average was 2.5 percent. We will monitor this apparent anomaly and revisit this matter when 2003 information is available on a by state basis.

The Arizona economy is diversified. The employed civilian population is less than one-half of Arizona’s population.

It is distributed as follows:

Given the anticipated growth in the Arizona economy and the diversification of the Arizona economy, I would expect the growth rate of Arizona’s P/C insurance marketplace, as measured by direct premium written, to exceed the growth rate experienced on a countrywide basis.

Joseph L. Petrelli is the president and founder of Demotech Inc., a Columbus, Ohio-based financial analysis and actuarial services firm. Petrelli is a member of the Casualty Actuarial Society, American Academy of Actuaries and the Conference of Actuaries in Public Practice. Additional information can be found at www.demotech.com.

INDUSTRY
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining – 32,676
Construction – 193,464
Manufacturing – 228,590
Wholesale trade – 73,441
Retail trade – 273,864
Transportation and warehousing, and utilities – 111,186
Information – 62,577
Finance, insurance, real estate, and rental and leasing – 175,311
Professional, scientific, management, administrative, and waste management services – 229,660
Educational, health and social services – 402,183
Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation and food services – 225,129
Other services (except public administration) – 103,305
Public administration – 121,618

Occupation
Employed civilian population 16 years and over – 2,233,004
Management, professional, and related occupations – 730,001
Service occupations – 362,547
Sales and office occupations – 636,970
Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations – 13,893
Construction, extraction, and maintenance occupations – 245,578
Production, transportation, and material moving occupations – 244,015

About Joseph L. Petrelli

Petrelli is the president and co-founder of Demotech, Inc., a Columbus, Ohio-based financial analysis and actuarial services firm. Visit Demotech.com for additional information. More from Joseph L. Petrelli

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Insurance Journal West January 26, 2004
January 26, 2004
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