Hong Kong is facing a period of heavy rain and strong winds as two storms brew in warm tropical waters, with one system forecast to intensify into a super typhoon next week.
A tropical depression is currently spinning in the South China Sea and tracking northwest toward the city, according to the local weather bureau. The system is forecast to gradually intensify, bringing squally showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, though it’s predicted to stay below typhoon strength.
But it’s a cluster of disturbed weather about 1,300 kilometers (808 miles) east of the Philippines that meteorologists have a close eye on. The nation’s weather agency predicts it will reach typhoon strength by Monday, crossing the Luzon Strait the following day and moving into the South China Sea.
Given its current location, there’s still uncertainty around where the system will eventually make landfall, but at least one model has it tracking toward the south of Hong Kong and Macau on Wednesday and hitting southern China.
An experimental artificial intelligence weather model from Google DeepMind predicts the system will strengthen into a major Category 4 hurricane early on Monday as it nears the Luzon Strait. The storm is then set to weaken as it tracks toward China, but will still be a super typhoon as it approaches Hong Kong.
A Category 4 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale has top sustained winds of 209 kilometers to 251 kilometers per hour. The Hong Kong Observatory defines a super typhoon as a storm with maximum sustained winds of at least 185 kilometers per hour.
The Hong Kong weather bureau predicts the storm will be at super typhoon strength after passing the Luzon Strait, but doesn’t yet have a forecast track for the system that extends beyond Tuesday.
Read More: Hong Kong Boosts Flood Management as Climate Change Fuels Heavy Rains
The possible double whammy would come just weeks after Hong Kong experienced a round of record-breaking rainfall, testing the city’s flood defenses. The last time the city was lashed by a super typhoon was in September 2023, when Saola brought destructive winds to the territory.
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